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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2024-07-25T00:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-07-25T00:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32191/-1
CME Note: Messy halo CME seen with a bulk portion to the NW in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2 imagery. Solar Orbiter detected an estimated X7 class flare on the far side peaking at 2024-07-24T23:25Z that may be the source of this halo feature. There is no ICME arrival in the solar wind at L1.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-07-27T05:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 70.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

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# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE  from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)         #
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A halo CME was first observed in the SOHO/LASCO C2 images around 00:12 UTC on Jul 25. This CME was associated with C-class flarings produced by NOAA AR 3762 (S10 E06) and the EUV wave. It has a projected speed of about 800 km/s. With its source region located closer to the central meridian, it is expected to impact the Earth on Jul 27.
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# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium                #
# Royal Observatory of Belgium                                       #
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Lead Time: 29.70 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Tony Iampietro (M2M) on 2024-07-25T23:18Z

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